Monday, November 30, 2009

Huge Investment in Energy Forecast by BP


A huge investment in energy of $1 trillion dollars per year, for the next 20 years must be good news for the Canadian Oil & Gas Industry; Oil Sands and heavy oil in Alberta and Saskatchewan, plus natural gas in BC as well as the western prairies must feature strongly in future energy development.

Just to get a handle on this, a billion is a thousand million, and a trillion is a thousand billion; so if just five percent (5%) of this investment is made in Canada it would represent investment of $50 billion a year.

Considering the size of Canada's Oil Sands, 5% should be a very conservative number. (The Athabasca
Oil Sands have approximately 170 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil [about 10% of total], which means that Canada's total oil reserves are the second largest in the world after Saudi Arabia's.)

Tony Hayward, BP's CEO, is projecting a 45% global increase in energy requirement, which will require a huge investment to meet it.
According to BP's projections, we'll need about 45% more energy in 2030 than we consume today. And we mustn't underestimate what it will take to achieve that. We'll need an investment of some $25 to 30 trillion - that's more than $1 trillion a year for the next 20 years.
But BP also sees the necessity of a diverse energy mix, which will include nuclear, wind, solar and biofuels, along with fossil fuels to meet future energy requirements. No doubt the development of diverse sources is vital to the world economy, but in this case BP is paying due respect to the spectre of human induced climate changed.
We also need a more diverse energy mix which will enable energy security and help address the issue of climate change.

Alternative energy - nuclear, wind, solar and biofuels, along with fossil fuels - will all play an important role.
BP has to be politically correct in respect to global-warming theories, but hopefully CO2 theories will be on a firm scientific footing long before 2030, and the current hysteria and wild speculations will have died the death they deserve.

Hayward adds the necessary note of caution to those who want to upset the global economy:
But we need to be realistic - the transition to a lower-carbon economy won't happen overnight.
The sheer scale of the energy industry makes this impossible. To give you an example, it takes more than 30 years to turn over the capital stock in the power sector and 15 years for cars. Such long lead times mean that like it or not, fossil fuels will continue to play a very significant part in the future energy mix.
At BP we estimate that by 2030 they'll still be satisfying about 80% of our energy needs.
The full text of Tony Hayward speech: Meeting the Energy Challenge can be read at the BP website

Gurth Whitaker
Calgary, Alberta

Monday, November 16, 2009

O&G Alberta Roundup




Three articles in this week's roundup:
  ~ Senate Panel Considers Climate Change Bill's Impacts
  ~ Oil and gas group forms in Greenland
  ~ Slower desulfurization growth seen in US, Canada
  
 
Senate Panel Considers Climate Change Bill's Impacts
From the Oil and Gas Journal:
Days after one US Senate committee approved a climate change bill with a carbon cap-and-trade program, the chairman of another convened a hearing to examine the possible economic consequences.
The news is bleak for the economy if the US proceeds with the bill (also referred to as the Waxman-Markey Bill); expectations that this bill will help the US economy are unrealistic. The mantra is that it will create "green jobs", perhaps but at what cost? And how many jobs will be lost as a result of the increased burden on the economy?   Republican Senator Charles E. Grassley (Iowa) stated that"
“An honest cost assessment requires us to acknowledge that there would be no economic benefit for Americans from it, at least initially.”
I think Senator Grassley is being more than even-handed to his Democrat colleagues; the likelihood of economic benefit even in the long term is slim from "cap and trade schemes", except for traders in credits such as Al Gore, and GE, who are strong backers of the scheme.  According to the Washington Post, the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) Director Douglas W. Elmendorf's testimony to the Senate on the bill the House passed over the summer, would cause "significant" job losses in the fossil-fuel industries and would slow U.S. economic growth for several decades, including between 0.25 and 0.75 percent by 2020.

       Year                     Percentage Change
2020                            -0.2 to -0.7
2030                            -0.4 to -1.1
2040                            -0.7 to -2.0
2050                            -1.1 to -3.4
Table: Projected Changes in Gross Domestic Product in Selected Years from the Implementation of H.R. 2454

The data can be seen on the testimony of Congressional Budget Office Director, Douglas W. Elmendorf's to the Senate: "The Economic Effects of Legislation to Reduce Greenhouse-Gas Emissions" (He is the Congressional Budget Office Director testifying to a Senate Committee) Republican Senator John Barrasso (Wyoming) stated that the policy reflected the administration's tendency:
"to promise jobs for all, create some for a few and let the rest of us fend for ourselves."
Oil and gas group forms in Greenland
Could Canada figure in future O&G production in Greenland? Newfoundland and Atlantic Canada with engineering expertise for off-shore would be geographically well placed to provide engineering in addition to Houston, Tx. According to Oil Voice
A continuously increasing focus on the possibilities for oil and gas production in Greenland has increased the need for a common forum for the industry. Now the formation of the Greenland Oil Industry Association (GOIA) is a reality under the chairmanship of Arne Rosenkrands of DONG Energy and with Ian Watt of Cairn Energy as vice chairman. The seven founders of the association are companies holding exploration licences offshore Greenland – DONG E&P Grønland A/S, Esso Exploration Greenland Ltd, Chevron Greenland Exploration A/S, Husky Oil Operations Ltd, Capricorn Greenland Exploration Ltd. (Cairn Energy PLC), PA Resources AB and Nunaoil A/S.
 Greenland Oil Industry Association (GOIA) stated their main objectives:
  • To work together to ensure safe execution of drilling and production activities and to ensure the highest standards of environmental stewardship
  • To expand the knowledge base through joint industry studies, and share best practice
  • To provide a forum for industry communication with the authorities and the community in Greenland
  • To strengthen and promote the development of a competitive oil and gas industry in Greenland through cooperation and stakeholder dialogue   
Cairn Energy plc. announced an agreement with PETRONAS International Corporation Ltd (PICL) on October 14, for a farm-out of Greenland Blocks. Cairn has agreed to sell PICL a 10% interest in its existing 6 operated blocks offshore plus other agreements for US $310 million, which will be targeted for additional investment in Greenland exploration.  The total consideration to be paid by PICL in respect of the above transactions is US $310 million*. These funds will be targeted for additional investment in Greenland exploration.
Slower desulfurization growth seen in US, Canada
Oil and Gas Journal Reports that; refinery desulfurization capacities for gas oil and naphtha in US and Canada will continue to grow through 2013 but more slowly than they did in the period 2000 - 2008.
Among 134 active refineries in the US and Canada covered by the study, gas oil desulfurization increased from 2.83 million b/d in 2000 to 3.82 million b/d in 2008. The total is expected to reach 3.98 million b/d in 2013.
The average growth rate thus will decline from 3.7% per year in 2000 -2008 to 0.8% per year in the forecast period, the study says.
The US and Canada have a combined 22% of the world’s refinery distillation capacity but 36% of its gas oil desulfurization capacity, the study notes. Their combined naphtha desulfurization capacity is 40% of the global total.
Refiners have been adding desulfurization capacity to meet requirements for ultralow-sulfur diesel and gasoline.
Gurth Whitaker Calgary, AB

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Suncor Proceeding with new Tailings Treatment Technology




Good news for Alberta and the mining process in particular comes by way of a new treatment from Suncor Energy Inc.

The new technology promises a large improvement in the future footprint for tailing-ponds in Athabasca Oil Sands heavy oil mines

Suncor Energy announced on October 23 that it had submitted a  regulatory application for their new tailings technology  to the ERCB (Energy Resources Conservation Board).

Suncor  new tailings treatment technology, known as Tailings Reduction Operations (TRO) promises significant improvement in the speed of reclamation of oil-sands tailings.
Tailings are a mixture of fine clay, sand, water and residual bitumen produced through the oil sands extraction process. As tailings settle, a portion will eventually form into mature fine tailings (MFT), a substance that historically has taken many decades to firm up sufficiently for planting and surface reclamation. Consolidated tailings (CT) technology, pioneered by Suncor in the 1990s, is the current method of speeding this settling process. The CT process adds coarse sand and gypsum to accelerate the release of water.
The fine particles in suspension takes many decades to settle and are sufficiently  separated from the water to form a mass which can be handled. This long period has required mining operations to build  more and larger tailings-ponds for the treatment.

Kirk Bailey, executive vice president, Oil Sands stated:
“Consolidated Tailings has proven effective, but in this industry, the focus is always on developing new technology and better processes,”
 The new TRO process will greatly reduce residence time in ponds from a matter of many decades to weeks:
This drying process occurs over a matter of weeks, allowing more rapid reclamation activities to occur.  The new process is expected to improve management of tailings going forward, and can also be used to reduce existing tailings inventory at Suncor’s operations.
The TRO technology is based on the addition of  a polymer floculant
The implementation of TRO involves converting fluid fine tailings more rapidly into a solid landscape suitable for reclamation. In this process, MFT is mixed with a polymer flocculent, then deposited in thin layers over sand beaches with shallow slopes. The resulting product is a dry material that is capable of being reclaimed in place or moved to another location for final reclamation.
Jacobs announced yesterday (Nov 10) that Suncor has awarded them the Engineering contract for the DBM (Design Basis Memorandum)  and associated engineering services:
10 November 2009 - Jacobs Receives Contract From Suncor for Oil Sands Sustainability Project in Canada. 
PASADENA, Calif., Nov. 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE: JEC) announced today it received a contract from Suncor Energy (Suncor) to provide project management, engineering and procurement services to complete the scoping study and Design Basis Memorandum (DBM) for tailings and water transfer projects. These projects are a portion of the Tailings Reduction Operations (TRO) implementation at Suncor's oil sands mining, extraction and upgrading facility located 30 kilometers north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada.

Port Engineering News has more details: New tailings treatment promises sustainability gains for oil sands 

Gurth Whitaker
Calgary Alberta